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19 de may. de 2024 · Según Toby Ord, investigador australiano radicado en Londres, existe una posibilidad entre seis de que la humanidad desaparezca en el transcurso de este siglo. Las causas posibles que dan sustento a ese enunciado señalan que los riesgos emergentes de la acción humana son mayores a los que provienen de causas naturales.
15 de may. de 2024 · About. Book. Research. Writing. Projects. Media. Earth. Writing. Robust longterm comparisons. May 15, 2024Toby Ord. The choice of discount rate is crucially important when comparing options that could affect our entire future. Except when it isn’t.
10 de may. de 2024 · In the book “The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity,” Toby Ord uses the term “precipice” as a metaphor for the delicate current state of humanity, perched on the brink of facing existential catastrophes with an imminent probability of occurrence at 16.67%.
21 de may. de 2024 · Oxford philosopher Toby Ord calls this the "moral patiency" of advanced AI systems: "Even if future AI systems do not rise to the level of full moral status... we may well have strong moral reasons to try to shape their behavior."
Hace 6 días · An existential catastrophe, by Toby Ord’s definition, doesn’t necessarily require all humans to die out, it just requires AI to curtail most of the value in the future (by our human lights). Daniel offered a vignette of humans going the way of the apes: “Let’s say the AIs have an economy that minimally relies on human inputs.
6 de may. de 2024 · This is the fifth post in the Worldview Investigations Team’s sequence of posts—Causes and uncertainty: Rethinking value in expectation (CURVE). This report builds on the model originally introduced by Toby Ord on how to estimate the value of existential risk mitigation.
22 de may. de 2024 · And there's been a very, very good book by Toby Ord, an Australian who is at Oxford University, called Precipice, and it talks about existential risk. And in this book, Toby Ord identifies there are around six core existential risks, an existential risks being will something destroy humanity, kill everyone by the end of the century ...
